Astro’s Bills Mock, Round 2 – With Analysis

STANFORD, CA – October 25, 2014: The Stanford Cardinal vs Oregon State Beavers game at Stanford Stadium in Stanford, California. Final score, Stanford Cardinal 38, Oregon State Beavers 14. Photo from stanforddaily.com.

In Round 1, the Bills met two major needs on their list, a brash young kid named Jim Kelly –uhhh, Baker Mayfield– and a future All-Pro Guard who played Center this year, Billy Price.

RD1, #21—QB Baker Mayfield
RD1, #22—C-G Billy Price
RD2, #53
RD2, #55
RD3, #96
RD4, #117 (approximate due to compensatory picks)
RD5, #149 (approximate due to compensatory picks)
RD5, #157 (approximate due to compensatory picks)

With QB and C-G checked off, and Ryan Groy filling in at the other G or C spot, our list of Bills’ needs now looks like this:
DL3T, LB, EDGE, G, CB, RB, WR, DL1T, S Depth, TE.
Free-agent signings will alter this list, as will Combine results and possible trades.

I’ve run a simulation of the next 30 picks in the 2018 Draft, and the players listed below were available at Pick #53. We get Pick #55, as well, so again we’ll pick two  I’ve put them in order of DraftTek’s Big Board (with some Team Analyst Grabs), not in order of the Bills’ needs.

Deontay Burnett  WR USC, or Auden Tate WR Florida St–The smallish Burnett caught 40% of his contested targets this year. Impressive. But Beane likes tall WRs. Tate’s 6’5″, 225. Want two?
Ronnie Harrison S  Alabama–Harrison’s intense game preparation and aggressive play style will impress McDermott, but will he get on the field with Hyde-Poyer ahead of him? Daboll would know.
Harrison Phillips  DL3T Stanford–Phillips, a champ wrestler, has some Kyle in him: quickness off the line, fierce hand fighting, a mature array of moves, and wry humor. Catch his Sr Bowl interview.
Nick Chubb  RB Georgia, or Sony Michel  RB Georgia–Bulldogs Chubb (6.3 ypc career, 11.6 receiving), a big back to complement Shady, or Sony, the next Shady (6.1 ypc career, 9.7 receiving)?
Marcell Frazier EDGE Missouri–Bills were 30th in pressures after Dareus left. Ask Eagles and Jags if pressures help beat Patriots. Frazier’s motor and discipline will appeal to McBeane.
Tarvarus McFadden CB Florida St–Re-sign Gaines for more than he’s worth, or draft McFadden, a 6′ 2″ CB with speed and athleticism? Successful surgery dropped September 2017’s top prospect.
Uchenna Nwosu LB USC–Pressures come from moves like Nwosu’s that keep blockers at bay. He has speed, balance, and bends the arc well. I see him as heir to Lorenzo’s spot.
Jerome Baker  LB Ohio St–Preston Brown’s the NFL leader in tackles over the last 3 years. He’s not side-line-to-sideline fast, but possibly Milano-Brown-Lorenzo needs more up-front pressure. 
Braden Smith G Auburn–You could give Pro Bowler Richie one more year, one of the 3 oldest players on the team. Give Dawkins the LT job, slot Cordy in at RG, and waive Miller/Ducasse.
Chukwuma Okorafor OT W. Michigan–“Chukes” Okorafor has a very high ceiling, but is raw. He’ll be raw when he gets to camp, but he’ll still be 6-5, 330. He has Jason Peters’ quick feet.

Photo of GM Brandon Beane from buffalobills.com.

Do you pick with the Bills’ needs in order, or skip a few? That’s what GM Brandon Beane is already thinking about. You could take a younger three-tech D-Lineman in free agency, but none has the fit for the Bills like Phillips.

We’ll slot him in at #55, not #53, and here’s why: Kansas City has their first pick of the draft at #54, in the middle of the Bills’ picks, and they’re likely looking at CB, EDGE, and G. At #53, Beane is likely to skip over some of the above-listed needs to address the need at CB or EDGE, two more-likely picks of the Chiefs.

The Chiefs play a 3-4 and have Dontari Poe and Jaye Howard at NT, so they most likely won’t be looking at a 3-tech who’d be better in a 4-3. Boom. “We take Phillips first”, Brandon Beane says to the War Room. Taylor, Wood, and Williams all now have their successors.

RD1, #21—QB Baker Mayfield
RD1, #22—C-G Billy Price
RD2, #53—DT3T Harrison Phillips
RD2, #55—

Our research paid off; Kansas City grabbed Safety Ronnie Harrison, and we’re back on the clock at #55. The Bills’ needs still include LB, EDGE, G, CB, RB, WR, DL1T, S Depth, and TE. McBeane,

Defensive Coordinator Frasier and Offensive Coordinator Daboll mull their options in the War Room. Best players available on their own Big Board might be CB Tarvarus McFadden, RB Nick Chubb, and EDGE Marcell Frazier, possibly in that order.

Photo of CB EJ Gaines from NewYorkUpstate.com.

AP Defensive Rookie of the Year Tre White set the NFL on fire as a rookie. “Do we give EJ Gaines the benefit of the doubt and re-sign him, or use the RD2 pick the Rams gave us to draft his replacement?” Brandon Beane asks.

He glances at EJ Gaines’ injury history and groans. “Gaines was on I.R. all of 2015, missed 5 games in 2016, and missed 5 games this year, and he wants a big payday“, Beane mutters. We’ll get to the quarterback with coverage sacks, using the best quartet of DBs in the league. McFadden will be better than Gaines, both covering and tackling, and he can intercept better, too.”

Brian Daboll says, “But Nick Chubb. Erhardt-Perkins.”

Beane replies, “We got you covered, Dabes. We brought in your free-agent back [insert whichever Pats’ free-agent RB you like here: Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, Brandon Bolden, or LeGarrette Blount].”

Daboll grins and sits.”I’m good…Erhardt-Perkins.”

Leslie Frasier looks edgy. “We have Hughes and Yarbrough listed as starters at EDGE…unless you count Shaq Lawson as a keeper.”

They all laugh hysterically.

Beane says, “Don’t worry Les…Shaq’ll be back with a vengeance. You and I know Shaq’s an attack DE in a 4-3; it’s what he did so well at Clemson. Why Rex and Whaley drafted him in RD1 to play 3-4 OLB is insane…Well, it brought us all here.”

They turn in CB Travares McFadden’s name.

RD1, #21—QB Baker Mayfield
RD1, #22—C-G Billy Price
RD2, #53—DT3T Harrison Phillips
RD2, #55—CB Travares McFadden
RD3, #96—

>>>>>ROUND 3 LINK

 

Editor’s babble: Thanks to Dean Kindig for his awesome contributions to our blog. You can follow Dean on Twitter @TCBILLS_Astro.

*Views expressed on the blog are the author’s and do not necessarily represent the owners of the billsmafia.com website.

6 Replies to “Astro’s Bills Mock, Round 2 – With Analysis”

  1. Good morning, you put some thought into the drafting. The Bills like Harris and may take him in the 1st round along with Price. I can’t see Mayfield lasting until 21 but you never know…